US Long Bonds

The neckline has been defended again. As US long bonds have bounced, the inflows have receded.

US TBd (20 Years +) and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Within a week, price driven by (insert the appropriate headline) - passage of healthcare, weak bond auctions, the end of the Shamrock Shake sales at McDonald's, sits on the neckline again.

US Long Bonds 20-Year+ ETF (TLT)


The US long bond market reminds me of the moment when two hockey players, squaring for a fight, throw the gloves to the ice. As I said before, this neckline will be defended at all costs. The immovable objects meets the unstoppable force - the US long bond market.