US Long Bonds

The test of the near term swing high came on light volume. I described it as a bond rally with a limp. As a result, the bonds have faded off the resistance and trend line.

Still, those expecting that the neckline will be broken without a fight, might as well pick up their marbles and go home right now. Unless, the last week's heavy inflows have reversed into the small up tick (doubtful), it is likely that the bulls will reorganize into this dip. A light volume dip into the lower gap will create another bullish setup. What cannot break resistance with force, will reverse and attempt to break resistance with force.

The overhead gap is the critical line in the sand. It was formed on heavy volume and will not be easy to overcome.

US Long Bonds ETF (TLT)