Retail sales up in March; consumer prices tame

Similar interpretations, such X (number) consecutive month of gains, unexpected strength in retail sales, and the consumer is driving the recovery, were used 2005, 2007, and 2008. Unexpected this or that has tendency to fade without notice. The constant currency (gold adjusted) retail sales trends, see chart below, are well defined since 2000. Historical high debt burden, low savings and devaluation are hallmarks of a cyclical (liquidity driven) rather than secular (fundamental or demand driven) economic recovery. When the free money wears off, the old problems of 2001 and 2007 will reemerge.

Retail sales rose for the third straight month in March as better weather and auto incentives brought out shoppers in force.

The rise was more than economists had expected. It's the latest sign that consumer spending is rising fast enough to support a modest economic recovery.

Gold-Adjusted Retail Sales (RSGLDR) and YOY Change:


Source: finance.yahoo.com