US Longs Bonds

Did Friday's news move the market, or was the market already setup? Headlines are often excuses in this business.

The bond market continues to see aggressive inflows - defend the neckline.

US TBd (20 Years +) and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Friday’s Tape –

US Long Bonds ETF (TLT)


The close above the previous swing high on increasing volume represents a good break. This suggests that the overhead gap will be challenged soon. The energy of the tape will be critical. The rest is trading noise.

My trading perspective in order:
1. Find the secular trend.
2. Trade in sympathy with the trend.
3. Leverage markets control price. Thus, to trade in sympathy, one must learn to follow leverage.
4. Time. Gann was the master of time. Everything trades within cycles of time. When time is up, price will follow.
5. Technical analysis based on the strength of the tape.

Analysis that jumps straight to TA is too limited.