Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Kiss That V-Shaped Recovery Good-Bye - Not so fast

Kiss That V-Shaped Recovery Good-Bye: The U.S. "Worse Than Greece," Says Economist.

Pento is negative on America's near term economic prospects for three main reasons: too little bank lending, too few jobs and too much public and private debt.

These points have been discussed in detail here and jsmineset.com.

The idea of tee-pee recovery, in which we have already seen the peak in the fourth quarter, assumes that the stock market is being driven by real economic demand. Look no further than the Weimar Republic as an example of how devaluation supports vertical, V-shaped rises. Is the V-shaped recovery, or devaluation of the U.S. dollar over? If the above assertion that U.S. is worse than Greece, there's no way infinite quantitative easing (QE) ends here and now. Falling dollar supports higher nominal, but not real, stock prices.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

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