Friday, February 12, 2010

Consumer Sentiment Index in U.S. Declined in February (Update1)

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in February from a two-year high, signaling Americans may not be convinced the job market is turning around.

The relationship between consumer confidence/expectations, stocks, and gold continues to be the same.

Previous posted consumer confidence comments

The consumer expectations and gold commentary indicates that contrary to expectations that rising confidence will setup the next advance (gold).

The only uncertainty is whether or not unexpectedly preceeds the word fell or rise in the newswire. In this case, the unexpected decline suggests that another wave of quantitative easing (QE) has or will start soon. In other words, the rise in consumer expectations since 2008 will provide the fuel for the next advance in gold. During the a depression, or the great recession that never seems to end, consumer confidence will ebb and flow with economic spin. When reality begins to reveal the economic spin as an illusion, confidence - consumer expectations falls and QE immediately ramps up. It is this ramp-up, or devaluation, that pushes the price of gold higher.

Source: bloomberg.com

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