Saturday, February 27, 2010

Ipso facto - US long bond review

Treasuries advanced for the first time in three weeks as weaker-than-forecast economic reports and the threat of credit-rating downgrades for Greece spurred demand for the safety of U.S. government debt.

Ipso facto directly translated as "by the fact itself," which means that a certain effect is a direct consequence of the action in question. For example, rising treasury prices (effect) is a direct consequence of the actions of weak economic data - unexpected tumbles in home sales and consumer confidence (action). This is how many investors view the world. A world that ecnourages many to chase their investment tails.

The reality is that the bond market was setup in advance of the realization that the actions of "unexpected this or unexpected that" caused the effects of higher bond prices. This is the basis of spin or MOPE.

US TBd (20 Years +) and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Source: bloomberg.com

0 comments:

Post a Comment