Sunday, February 21, 2010

Federal Budget: A study of history

As a student of history, I will say that those exposed and leveraged to the U.S. dollar, most of the public, it is and will continue to be far rougher than officially advertised. It's difficult to appreciate what "rougher" means without a historical reference, so let me give you a glimpse.

Real, gold adjusted or constant currency federal revenues and outlays continue to shrink and expand, respectively.

Real Federal Revenues:


Real Federal Outlays:


This dynamic is punching a hole in the federal budget, "the formula", the size of which has not been seen since America's entrance into World War II during the second great depression.

US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) and Gold London P.M. Fixed:


Except today nowhere close to the debt liquidation of 1941 or the individual savings rate necessary to provide the foundation for the next great economic expansion.

Devaluation remains the only option.

Source: fms.treas.gov

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