Sunday, July 11, 2010

One group is selling stocks, another is buying

Even as Market Jumps Higher, Investors Head For Exits

Perhaps the past week's stock market rally was only a mirage: Fund-flow data showed retail investors ran for the exits even as the major averages were gaining nearly 4 percent and staging their biggest surge in months.

Retail money, historically bad market timers, is heading for the exits.

Nasdaq 100 and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Connected money, which has an excellent track record of identifying the secular trends and timing them, is buying (fading) the decline.

Nasdaq 100 and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


As one type of investor is buying, another is buyer. When a technical trigger is generated, the market tends to break in the direction anticipated by the connected players. Follow not only the direction of money but also the groups setting them up.

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