Slow Distribution From Strong to Weak Hands In Bonds

I recall taking some heat after Are Bonds About To Get Steamrolled? commentary August 2010. The negative feedback wasn’t really surprising as many Americans remain in denial about many of global secular trends in place since 2000.

As Armstrong’s most recent commentary suggests, the bankers are neither naïve or foolish. They understand the ramifications of the trends in place and will not be the ones bearing the losses when they break.

The slow distribution process will continue to transfer ownership from the strong to weak hands. The controlled churning process will be characterized by fear-induced sucker rallies and “air-pocket style” declines.

US TBd (20 Years +) and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Source: martinarmstrong.org