The "talk" about an economy on the verge or in the process of rebounding is hype until the trend in real (gold adjusted) total receipts transitions from down to up. There have been three major transitions since 1879 - 1898, 1937, and 1982.
Real or Gold Adjusted Federal Total Receipts 12-Month Moving Average (TR12MA) AND Federal Total Receipts 12-Month Moving Average Year-over-Year Change (TW12MA12LN)

Source:
fms.treas.gov
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