Jump in retail sales sends stock futures off lows

The 'expectations game' is taken straight from the spin handbook. Better or worse than expected this or that drives a market higher or lower.

Secular trends could care less about expectations. Consumers, shell shocked from job loss and chronic under employment remain reluctant to spend. Fiat money, such as the dollar, are debasing as sovereign nations default through inflation on an ongoing basis. Retail sales are measured in U.S. dollars. The ongoing debasement of the U.S. dollar makes the retail sales time series biased over time. Thus, any interpretation, such as short-term deviation from expectations is meaningless without a correction of the time series.

Gold-adjusted retail sales, an unbiased time series, illustrate not only a declining but accelerating secular down trend. Any short-term positive reaction in U.S. equities has more to do with the ongoing fiat devaluation rather deviation of an economic time series from expectations.

Gold-Adjusted Retail Sales (RSGLDR) and YOY Change:


The general weakness in retail sales is confirmed by sluggish and deteriorating auto sales.

Auto Sales (AS) and YOY Change:

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.4 percent, slightly better than the 0.3 percent growth forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters. The sales report Tuesday falls in line with data over the past two weeks that has indicated the economy is growing slightly faster than economists expected, but still remains sluggish.

Source: finance.yahoo.com