Saturday, September 11, 2010

Aggressive Inflows Into U.S. Equities

In my commentary Retail Money is Bearish On Stocks last week, I suggested that media headlines and retail money flows were bearish on stocks, while commerical traders showed aggressive but relatively quiet inflows. This was a classic bullish setup. Those inflows got a bit louder of the past week. This is reflected in the heavy, statistically signficant inflows in the Equity Diffusion Index by "connected" money.

S&P 500 and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Equity Diffusion Index (DI):


While connected money gets long, they do so while retail money goes increasingly short.

S&P 500 and and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Equity Diffusion Index (DI):


The aggressive outflows in the VIX by commerical traders confirms the direction of the quiet, aggressive push into equities despite the bearish headlines and sentiment.

S&P 500 and the VIX Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest


The bullish setup in equities which suggests increasing risk towards the devaluation trade confirms the unusual short-covering in silver into strength rather than weakness. Connected money tends to cover into weakness and short into strength as a tool of price management. The opposite occurred last week. This unusual change in the direction of money flows relative to buying and selling suggests something is different in the silver market.

Money Flow Table Gold & Silver:

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