Gold - 1972 or 1979?

Hello Lance;

I cannot speak for Jim directly, but I seriously doubt that he presented 1979 as a model or setup that will precede “The Top”. The trend energy and cycle work suggests the potential for strong non-linear run into 2012, but I highly doubt that will mark the end.

Does this setup reflect 1972 more than 1979? For those motivated to make comparisons, I suggest a detailed review of the 1930’s as a proper cycle comparison. The great debt implosion was/is the driver behind the currency debasement of 1929-1946 and 2000-2016. The break in the secular up trend of debt creation in 1934 marked the beginning of the painful debt liquidation phase. We have only breached an intermediate trend line within larger secular up trend. Simply put, the recent acceleration of gold is an acknowledgement of more pain to come.

Total Credit Market Debt As A% GDP:


Gold was officially fixed between $20 and $35, so many analyst review the 70’s for cut and paste analysis.

Gold P.M. Fixed


An extensive study of the past trading masters reveals the shared characteristic of market vision. Jim’s market vision is simply exceptional from my perspective. For those traders out there, the fact that he’s not a PAST master, and chooses to discuss markets with the public is beyond fortunate. If the consensus agreed with Jim's market vision, I would be worried.

Sincerely,

Eric

Eric,

First of all, thanks for all your fantastic work -- especially your work on long-term cycles. I have found it extremely helpful and it has contributed immensely to my patience and conviction with my investments. Actually, my question is about long-term cycles.

Jim Sinclair has likened now to 1979 when gold was hovering around $400. That would imply imply the parabolic peak of this cycle will be reached in 2011.

But I tend to agree with Murray Pollitt, who likens today to 1972. That would still imply a parabolic-like peak for next year, but not THE parabolic peak.

Pollitt's take would also line up with the views of Egon Von Greyerz and Martin Armstrong, who predict a leg up into next year followed by a significant correction, followed by a long rally into the final peak price. It also lines up with Alf Field's view that we are in the "Major Three" leg, which will soar the price to $3500, followed by a correction of 30%, and then its final parabolic rise.

I think this also lines up with your views in that I always see a magnet pulling the gold price up into 2016 in your charts.

To me, 2011 is the year the underlying reality of the world's economic condition starts to become apparent to the masses. The key word is "start". Then the real recognizing begins, a process that could unfold for years and easily lead into 2016. Let us remember that most pension funds and retirement funds still have no clue about gold. That is all yet to come.

Anyway, I have never disagreed with Jim. But I do on this one. What's your take?

Cheers,

Lance