U.S. Economy: Durables, Housing Signal Recession Risk

Both CPI and gold-adjusted business core spend (new orders of durable goods ex. defense and aircraft) time series are rolling over. Gold adjusted business core spending, a better reflection real of business activity, has not recorded positive year-over-year growth since 2007. This throws cold water on the heavily MOPE’d economic recovery of 2009-2010.

Real Business Core Capital Spending: Real or CPI-Adjusted New Orders of Durable Goods ex. defense and aircraft (RBCCS) and YOY Change:


Gold-Adjusted New Orders of Durable Goods ex. defense and aircraft (BCCSGLDR) and YOY Change:

Orders for durable goods in the U.S. increased less than forecast in July and sales of new homes unexpectedly dropped, increasing the risk of a renewed recession in the world’s largest economy.

Bookings for goods made to last at least three years rose 0.3 percent, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, demand fell by the most in more than a year. Purchases of new dwellings fell 12 percent to an annual pace of 276,000, the weakest since data began in 1963, figures from the same agency showed.

Source: businessweek.com