Monday, August 2, 2010

Foreign Custodial Accounts and Year over Year Change

When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money and inject liquidity into the credit market. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

The onset of another liquidity blast will likely coincide with a breakout of the consolidation pattern in the year-over-year growth rates. This consolidation is illustrated below.

Foreign Custodial Accounts and YOY Change:

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