Declining Real Retail Sales

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>
> JOHN WILLIAMS' SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS
>
> SPECIAL NOTICE -- August 13, 2010
> _______________________________________
>
> Retail Sales Hint at Third-Quarter GDP Contraction
> _______________________________________
>
> BRIEF OBSERVATIONS ON TODAY'S DATA. As noted below, posting of the
> full Commentary planned for today has been pushed into this
> weekend. Nonetheless, here are a couple of observations on this
> morning's CPI and retail sales reporting, which respectively were
> slightly stronger and weaker than consensus estimates.
>
> July's rebounding seasonally-adjusted month-to-month 0.31% CPI-U
> inflation (versus down 0.14% in June) and July's unadjusted year-to-
> year 1.24% gain (versus 1.05% in June), partially reflected a swing
> in seasonal factors that now will be boosting adjusted gasoline
> prices for several months. The SGS alternative estimates for July
> annual inflation are 5.4% (1990-base, Pre-Clinton), 8.6% -- 8.57% to
> the second digit -- (1980-base).
>
> The 0.41% seasonally-adjusted monthly gain reported for July Retail
> Sales was statistically indistinguishable from zero growth. After
> inflation adjustment, the real monthly gain was 0.10% percent. Even
> with some upside revision to prior periods, the inflation-adjusted
> July number was below the average for second-quarter 2010. That
> opens up a fair chance of real third-quarter retail sales
> contracting versus the second-quarter, with a suggestion that third-
> quarter GDP could show an outright quarterly contraction, even as
> reported by the government. Full details will follow in the
> Commentary.
>
>
> Best wishes to all, John Williams

Jim

Jim,

Nothing has changed. Devaluation continues to outpace retail sales. In other words, real retail sales continue to decline.

Eric

Gold-Adjusted Retail Sales (RSGLDR) and YOY Change: