U.S. Stocks

A transition from up to down between major cycle dates would be unexpected.

Outflows in the S&P 500 mini contract while concerning does not imply by itself a top or pending crash.

S&P 500 and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Aggressive inflows into the Nasdaq 100 mini contract, a higher beta group within the stock market, is inconsistent with a top or pending crash. Commercial traders, or connected money, can get it wrong, but these are low probability events.

Nasdaq 100 and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


The Equity Diffusion Index measures the agreement of money flows across stock market indices. It's basically neutral right now.

S&P 500 and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Equity Diffusion Index (DI):