Saturday, July 10, 2010

There's no safety within the herd if its headed for a cliff

Investors, driven by the safety in the herd mentality and fearing the next big decline, have swapped stocks for bonds in June and July.

Long Bonds to Stocks Ratio:


There's no safety within the herd if its headed for a cliff. Connected players outflows during the US long bond rally suggest that they see the herd heading for the cliff.

US TBd (20 Years +) and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest


Retail money, following the herd and asking no questions, is aggressively long.

US TBd (20 Years +) and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


Meanwhile, gold, officially unrecognized and properly explained, continues to dominate both stocks and bonds.

Long-Term U.S. Government Bonds Total Return Index (LTGBTRI) to Gold Ratio:


Who gives a sh*t, right? As the headlines clearly reminded us this week, gold is nothing more than a barbaric relic prized only by "crazy" gold bugs. Those that let others do their critical thinking for them rarely find their interests served.

0 comments:

Post a Comment