Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Index shows economic activity declined in June

Led by deterioration in production- and employment-related indicators, the
Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to –0.63 in June, down from +0.31
in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index
made negative contributions in June, while the sales, orders, and inventories
category made the lone positive contribution.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a lesser known economic series that suggest economic weakness in June. Trend inflections and divergences in the CFNAI often foreshadow trend changes in U.S. stocks. While the CFNAI trend line has yet to break, any weakness from June will met with further liquidity blasts from the Fed and public sector wishing to maintain the trend in stocks.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CNFAI) and S&P 500 Average:


Source: chicagofed.org