Real Annual Total Receipts Collected

While it relatively easy for any government to increase spending, devalue, to create or maintain nominal growth, it is quite difficult to collect tax revenues above and beyond that devaluation. One of the best indicators of real, stable currency, growth is the trend in real, or gold adjusted, annual tax revenues collected. This series peaked in 2001.04. It declined until 2004.10, when it briefly up ticked until 2005.09. It has been trending downward ever since.

Of course, many experts will say that the stock market measures economic activity, but a large portion of its wild gyrations within the depressionary trading box since 2000 has been the direct result of devaluation rather than real economic growth (demand). The downward trend in real, or gold adjusted annual tax revenues confirms it. Until real domestic tax revenues bottom, unlikely until 2012 - 2015, expect the wild gyration in the stock market to be a poor representation of real economic growth.

Real or Gold Adjusted Federal Total Receipts 12-Month Moving Average (TR12MA) AND Federal Total Receipts 12-Month Moving Average Year-over-Year Change (TW12MA12LN):