Economic mixed bag: No inflation but little hiring

The number of newly laid-off workers requesting jobless benefits fell slightly last week for the third straight time. But initial claims remain above levels that would signal net job gains.

While many have suggested an imminent jobs recovery, their predictions might be better served listening to the message of the markets. The ebb and flow of employment within a depression, fought by liquidity, is cyclical. The word cyclical could very well be interchangeable with political.

The message of the markets is clear. Initial claims have fallen since the spike of 2009. As we approach the red circle, the probably of further declines decreases. In other words, the advancing phase will soon replace the declining phase within the cycle.

If central planners fight this inevitability with more liquidity, the speed of the turn could be slowed. It will, however, turn. The more they fight it, the greater the resulting spike.

Average Weekly Initial Claims State Unemployment (AWIC) And YOY Change:


Source: finance.yahoo.com