The coming millionaire boom

There's difference between being a millionaire tomorrow and maintaining the purchasing power of a millionaire today. Those that understand the difference store their wealth in a constant currency such as gold, while those that don't just assume one or more of the following: (1) stronger economy, (2) it’s the way of things, and/or (3) we’re all getting richer.

Despite the Great Recession, which wiped out $15.5 trillion in household wealth in the United States alone, the number of millionaires in this country and abroad will grow rapidly over the next decade.

In the U.S., the total number of families with a net worth of over $1 million, including real estate, will double by 2020, according to a report by the Deloitte Center for Financial Services.

Source: money.cnn.com

Retail Money Is Always The Mark

As if playing the game was simply this easy. A concentrated short position in oil has existed since February 2011. Expect the ‘concentrated short position’ to be reduced as the backsides of retail money have been chapped into weakness.

Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI)


Retail money is almost always bullish at or near the highs. This is why retail money is often described as the mark in the game. Their recent bullishness prior the predicted decline is highlighted by the green circle and arrow below.

CrudeOil (WTI) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest


Headline: Goldman sees new oil rally after predicting drop

Goldman Sachs, which in April predicted this week's major correction in oil prices, said on Friday that oil could surpass its recent highs by 2012 as global oil supplies continue to tighten.

The Wall Street bank, seen as one of the most influential in commodities business, said it did not rule out a further limited short-term fall in oil prices if macro-economic data, which it said had sparked this week's crash, continued to disappoint.

News of Goldman's mid-term outlook on Friday prompted a $1 a barrel jump in oil prices, helping oil to pare some of its earlier heavy losses.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Labor Report Review

While the economy is adding jobs, it's still not a strong recovery. Job creation has been largely limited to the service sector of the economy.

Birth/Death Model (BDM) Contribution to Nonfarm Net Payrolls (NFP) Added/(Lost)


An up trend break of job growth in trucking and warehousing, a sub sector of the labor report, would confirm further economic weakness.

Truckers and Warehousing Payroll And YOY Change


The civilian labor force has been steadily contracting year-over-year since 2009. Can headline job creation suggest an improving employment picture as long as labor force continues to shrink?

Civilian Labor Force (CLF) And Year-Over-Year (YOY) Change


Headline: Economy adds 244k jobs, rate ticks up to 9 pct.

Employers added more than 200,000 jobs in April for the third straight month, the biggest hiring spree in five years. But the unemployment rate ticked up to 9 percent.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the economy added 244,000 jobs last month. Private employers shrugged off high gas prices and created 268,000 jobs -- the most since February 2006.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

There Are Many Parabolic Trends Within A Secular Trend

The explosive nature of silver is whipping around retail money like a plastic bag in a strong wind. While the headlines have been citing silver an unsustainable, parabolic trend, they do so from a short-term perspective. ‘Parabolic’ has the Street’s darling adjective used to describe silver. Life is about fractal analysis. Parabolic in terms of months versus years are two different trends. For example, the impressive advance from 1976 to 1980 in silver (and gold), the thick green parabola superimposed on 2008 for purpose of comparison, provides a completely perspective to the term parabolic.

The movement of money during the decline will reveal a better picture of the convictions behind silver and gold.

Silver, London P.M. Fixed (Silver) and Z Scores from Primary Trend

Gold Shares: Pessimism + Strong Tape = Accumulation Setup

Morning Observations:

(1) Retail money and headline analysis reflects pessimism towards the sector.
(2) REV(E), trend/tape energy, soaring to new highs while price lags.
(3) Observation 1 (Pessimism) + Observation 2 (Strong Tape) = Accumulation Setup. This classic setup often precedes the transition from “cool” to “hot” market.

Acting with discipline is not easy.

Eric

Gold Miners Index ETF (GDX):

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: The U.S. Collapse Will Follow Europe's, And Bernanke Will Be Fired

While the vast majority of people remain in denial, their silence has been broken by the growing voice of concern. The point of no return has already been passed. Few know what this really means.

The domino effect of debt maturity is coming to America, says Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management. "The U.S. is on the road to perdition and it is not going to end well."

Source: businessinsider.com
From Bob

Clorox, with profit falling, raising prices

Inflation is contained everywhere but the real world.

Inflation and a sour economy eroded profit at Oakland-based Clorox, which has responded by raising store prices, the consumer products maker said Tuesday.

Clorox earned $151 million on sales of $1.3 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2011. Compared to the year-ago January-March period, earnings fell 8.5 percent as sales rose 1.3 percent.

"We face a challenging economic environment, as evidenced by weak category performance in the U.S. and increasing commodity costs," said Don Knauss, Clorox's chief executive officer.

Source: insidebayarea.com