Monday, March 7, 2011

Utah House Passes Bill Recognizing Gold, Silver as Legal Tender

The fact that this news probably surprises a large cross section of the public implies far too many high school U.S. government classes no longer study or read the U.S. Constitution beyond “We the People.”

Headline: Utah House Passes Bill Recognizing Gold, Silver as Legal Tender

Utah took its first step Friday toward bringing back the gold standard when the state House passed a bill that would recognize gold and silver coins issued by the federal government as legal currency.

The House voted 47-26 in favor of the legislation that would also exempt the sale of gold from the state capital gains tax and calls for a committee to study alternative currencies for the state.

Source: foxnews.com

Deteriorating Confidence Makes Governments Insolvent

The inability of governments to pay their obligations in constant dollars, also recognized as inflation by the public and ongoing default by capital, has been occurring since 1934. It certainly intensified in 1971. The secular gold trend suggests that 1971 was simply the dress rehearsal for a bigger show taking place right now. As a side note, the association of hyperinflation with lower stock price under the fiat currency model is not historically consistent.

Headline: Hidden Debt Makes Governments Insolvent: Bear

As we prepare for the two-year anniversary of the March 9 lows for stock markets, investors are confronted with a number of worries that make it difficult to celebrate the near 100 percent jump in equities since then.

Oil prices are soaring off the back of unrest in the Middle East, there is talk of rate hikes from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and unemployment remains stubbornly high despite some better news from the US on Friday.

On top of these, a mountain of debt is growing but because it is off governments' balance sheets it has been so far ignored, one man who worries perhaps more than most, Albert Edwards from the global strategy team at Societe Generale, said.

One of the world's most famous bears, Edwards is adamant the global economy and financial markets are not in a good place.

Source: cnbc.com

Wall of Worry or Bubble?

Real estate was the “can’t lose” investment of a generation in 2007. Borrowing and consumption skyrocketed, and very few experts saw the formation of a stock market bubble. In other words, the headlines reflected growing optimism that the boom/bust cycle had been broken.

The stock market “bubbles” tend to pop when least expected. That is, when headlines are saturated by economic and financial optimism after years of rising prices.

Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI) and Z Scores from Primary Trend (48 Month)


Headline: After historic gains, are stocks nearing a bubble?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fielded the usual questions about inflation, tax cuts and government debt during a trip to Congress last week. Then a new question popped up: Is the Fed creating another bubble in stock prices?

Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee he saw "little evidence" that was happening. But he cautioned: "Of course, nobody can know for sure."

That's the problem with bubbles. You only know you're in one when it pops.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

She's in a cla$$ by herself

Eric:

I’m a loyal follower. Great work/site.

I read the NY POST-for not only the obvious scandals, the cartoon, etc., but also for some real hard hitting stories other papers won’t touch. Geez, they had Slick Willie nailed in 1991.

Anyway, check out this beauty:

Syosset Central School District at a glance:

6,687 students
623 classroom teachers
10 schools (one high school, two junior highs, seven elementary)
$188.8 million 2010-11 budget
1% of students need free or reduced price lunches
97% students are white or Asian (3% black or Latino)
83% of third-graders scored proficient or higher on this year’s state’s English test; 90% on math exam.

Syosset school compensation

* $506,322: Carole Hankin, superintendent
* $382,382: Jeffrey Streitman, deputy superintendent
** $238,221: Joseph LaMelza, assistant superintendent
$145,114: Dean Strohmayer, gym teacher
$129,818: Jeffrey Rozran, English teacher

*Includes fringe benefits, retirement funds, perks
** Includes fringe benefits

Mark


This is an education in extravagance.

The Syosset Central School District, which serves an enclave of gated communities, ritzy eateries and children's boutiques like "Spoiled Rotten," takes the crown in employee compensation.

The school superintendent, Carole Hankin -- who oversees 6,687 kids in 10 schools -- is the highest-paid in the state with $506,322 in total compensation. She collects a $386,868 salary, $67,454 in fringe benefits and $52,000 in retirement funds and expenses including use of a "late model car," plus gas.

By contrast, New York City Chancellor Cathie Black, in charge of 1.1 million students and 1,600 schools, takes home a $250,000 salary, plus health and pension benefits. She gets a driver.

Source: nypost.com

From Mark

Euro Will Strength Through Addition By Subtraction

Market forces and economic reality, not rating agencies, have been tipping Greece closer to the brink. Rating agencies only specialize in locking the barn door after the horses have bolted.

In a surprise turn, the Euro continues to rally against the negative news flow. Clearly, capital sees something that the headline expectations cannot. For starters, it’s an alternative to the U.S. dollar. Also, capital is beginning to anticipate a contraction in the size of the European Union (EU). Essentially, the EU and Euro will strengthen through a process known as “addition by subtraction.”

Euro ETF (FXE)


Headline: Moody's downgrade tips Greece closer to brink

Moody's slashed Greece's credit rating by three notches on Monday, raising the specter that the distressed euro zone sovereign may be forced to restructure its debt, perhaps even before 2013.

The move increased pressure on European leaders to ease repayment terms on bailout loans to Greece, just as Germany and its allies appear to have turned their backs on radical steps to help Athens reduce its debt through bond purchases or buy-backs.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Sunday, March 6, 2011

There Are Bigger Gorillas In The Room

While investors have become preoccupied with the battle in Wisconsin, they seem to have forgotten the bigger budgetary Gorillas in the same room. States such as California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, etc have much bigger defects. Bigger problems tend to mean bigger sacrifices and greater social and economic consequences.

The debate/battle ends when local and state governments can't find enough buyers for their debt offerings. That's already happening. Market forces, capital balancing reward relative to risks, ensure that the printing press disguised as infinite quantitative easing will be the only acceptable policy choice going forward.

Headline: Little-known LA police/fire retirement plan pays pension, salary at same time

The DROP program is an expensive public pension program that hardly anyone knows about, but pays out lump sums that average $200,000 and up to nearly a million dollars in some cases. KPCC's Madeleine Brand spoke with KCET's Judy Muller, who investigated the DROP program.

"DROP" stands for Deferred Retirement Option Plan. LAPD and L.A. Fire Department personnel who've worked for at least 25 years and are at least 50 years old can "retire," then go back to work immediately. When they return to work, pension payments are held while they continue collecting a salary, and after five years, they can leave and collect that money in a lump-sum payment.

Source: scpr.org

Slow And Steady Transition In Natural Gas

Leverage money flows illustrate the continuation of a net long transfer from retail to commercial traders in natural gas.

Natural Gas (UNG) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:


The slow and steady reduction commercial shorts since 2001 and increase in longs since 2009 reflects a market in transition.

Natural Gas (UNG) and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stoch Weighted Average of Long & Short As A % of Open Interest


Natural gas is an interesting market. It quietly awaits a trigger; A headline reason that will focus other people's money (OPM). The trigger, whatever it make be, will transition the market from professional accumulation to mark up.