Economic and Social Problems Stem From Failing Debt

Nothing unexpected. The problems we face today stem from failing debt - not the number of people requesting unemployment benefits. It still works because the need to believe outweighs most higher order, economic reasoning skills.

Average Weekly Initial Claims State Unemployment (AWIC) And YOY Change


Headline: Unemployment aid requests fall to near 3-year low

The number of people requesting unemployment benefits last week plunged to a nearly three-year low, bolstering the likelihood that companies will increase the pace of hiring this year.

Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the third decline in the past four weeks. Applications are now at their lowest level since May 2008.

Source: news.yahoo.com

Mailbox

Mike,

I appreciate your and all comments, but respectfully suggested a more comprehensive review of my analysis before reaching any broad conclusion. As I have explained numerous times in the past, nominal charts (unadjusted for currency depreciation) are useless when studying secular trends. Dow 10,000 is meaningless is but one of many commentaries that supports this perspective.

The identification of secular trends, whether it be stocks, real estate, silver, gold, or any other asset, can be achieved only through the study of stationary time series. Assets priced in depreciating currencies are nonstationary. Historical comparisons within a nonstationary time series will lead to statistically unsound conclusions and inhibit proper recognition.

The US dollar or nominal chart illustrates one of many messages from the silver market. The message that should be attracting investor’s attention is the change in the trend’s acceleration – nothing more. While price is a concern at the point of purchase and sale, it is but one dimension of profit. A large spread between purchase and sales price becomes increasingly insignificant as the total number of ounces acquired decreases.

Respectfully Yours,

Eric

Eric,

How can a chart dated from 1971 be used to make projections into the future, without that chart being inflation adjusted (either by government CPI or better, honestly, as per SGS.) The US dollar of 1971 bears no resemblance in value whatsoever to the dollar of today. Just like an inflation adjusted chart would bear no resemblance to the silver chart published today. Yet I see minds as great as yours, Sinclair's and Armstrong's doing this. I respect and deeply appreciate your work, but isn't this like trying to take accurate scientific altitude measurements while standing in quicksand?

Mike

Hedge Fund Titan's Principles

Every once and awhile (a long while) F-TV produces a guest that provides a moment of economic and financial clarity for the mainstream.

Hedge Fund Titan's Principles

Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management

BNN talks to one of the world's leading investor's and investment strategists Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management and finds out just how precious the metals are.

Video: watch.bnn.ca : The Street : March 1, 2011 : Silver is Money

The 2003-2011 linear trading channel has been broken to the upside. This increases the probability of a higher-order (parabolic) advance into resistance.

Silver, London P.M. Fixed

Boise County files for bankruptcy

And, so it begins, driven not by politics (leadership) but rather market forces.

In a move rare in the United States and perhaps unprecedented in Idaho, Boise County is filing for federal protection against a multimillion dollar judgment.

“This was not our first option. This was our last option,” said Jamie Anderson, chairwoman of the three-member Boise County Board of Commissioners. “This protects us so we can continue to operate.”

Chapter 9 protection, from a section of federal code expressly for financially distressed municipalities, means that creditors can’t collect while the county is developing a plan for reorganizing its debts.

Dan Chadwick, an attorney and executive director of the Idaho Association of Counties, said he is not aware of any other county, city or taxing district in Idaho ever filing for bankruptcy. He’s been with the association for 20 years and before that was at the Attorney General’s Office for 10 years, he said.

Source: idahostatesman.com

From Bob

The Average American Doesn't Stand A Chance

So, while I take those commodity price increases very seriously, I don't think they are primarily a dollar phenomenon.

In Testimony to House Panel, Ben Bernanke

As a result,

The Average American:



Headline: HIGHLIGHTS-Bernanke's testimony to House panel

BERNANKE: NO MAJOR SHIFT AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR:

"I just don't see at this point that there is a major shift away from the dollar. I would add also, on the commodity prices, that, first, that the fears of some foreign governments that we were, quote, manipulating the currency, by which one means that we were reducing the value of the dollar, has not come true. The dollar has not moved very much at all. And commodity prices have risen just about as much in other currencies as they have in terms of the dollar. So, while I take those commodity price increases very seriously, I don't think they are primarily a dollar phenomenon."

Source: uk.reuters.com

Real Economic Growth Remains Anemic

Unexpected, or surprising strength, always grabs investors’ attention. It screams the right message – the economic recovery gains traction. Unfortunately, the analysis fails to reveal that liquidity (inflation) is driving growth. In other words, real (inflation adjusted) growth remains weak. ISM’s prices paid (PP) to national purchasing manager’s index (PMI) ratio illustrates this trend since 2008. Today’s economic recovery, positioned as the Great Recession buster, is simply following in the footsteps of the previous liquidity driven recovery from 2001 to 2008. The only exception being is that this recovery will have greater amplitude or price distortions as the number, size, and duration of the liquidity injections have increased substantially.

ISM Prices Paid Index (PP) to National Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) Ratio:


Headline: Manufacturers see fastest growth since 2004

Activity at American manufacturers expanded in February at the fastest pace since 2004, though companies have grown more concerned about rising inflation, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing gauge rose to 61.4% in February from 60.8% in the prior month. Any reading over 50 indicates that more manufacturers are expanding instead of shrinking.

Source: marketwatch.com