Fed passes China in Treasury holdings

What does the Fed know that financial TV does not? The entire Western world financial community is broke. The fragile recovery is Happy Juice from the Dow.

Jim

The Fed knows that primary dealers, the credit brokers for the Fed and Treasury, have steadily withdrawn from bond and note auctions since 2008. Indirect buyers, such as foreign monetary authorities, and anonymous direct buyers have filled the void created by their withdrawal. The latest 5-year bond auction illustrates this trend that financial TV cannot recognize.

5-Year Bond Auction


Headline: Fed passes China in Treasury holdings

The Federal Reserve has surpassed China as the leading holder of US Treasury securities even though it has yet to reach the halfway mark in its latest round of quantitative easing, according to official figures.

Based on weekly data released on Thursday, the New York Fed’s holdings of Treasuries in its System Open Market Account, known as Soma, total $1,108bn, made up of bills, notes, bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or Tips.

According to the most recent US Treasury data on foreign holders of US government paper, China holds $896bn and Japan owns $877bn.

Source: ft.com

Call It A Snow Day

One of the largest winter storms in decades. No joke.

Headline: Midwest buckles under storm, calls it a snow day

A massive storm billed as the worst in decades barreled toward the northeast Wednesday, leaving vast swaths from Chicago to New York paralyzed by snow and ice, stranding hundreds of motorists all night and shuttering airports and schools.

Chicago had 19.5 inches of snow, ranking the storm the third-largest on record to hit the city with still more possible. As much as 1 1/2 feet fell in Missouri, more than a foot dropped on northern Indiana and southeast Kansas, and Oklahoma saw up to a foot.

Source: news.yahoo.com

Al Jazeera TV NEWS NOW

Believe it or not Al Jazeera has become the news service of choice world wide.

There are approximately 2 million people in Tariah Square….this was just reported……”a very large public revolution” is occuring……Jim

Click to watch video

Source: english.aljazeera

Trouble In Commerical Real Estate

Follow the money, not the talk.

Commercial real estate (CRE), highlighted by the blue box in the table below, has always been a significant contributor to credit creation in the United States. The table reveals that CRE loans have been contracting aggressively for more than a year. The following headline reads, “The Coming Collapse of Commercial Real Estate is Already Here, Says Davidowitz”. I’d say the writing has been on the wall since October 2009.

QE to infinity!

Table: Breakdown of Credit for Commercial Banking


Headline: The Coming Collapse of Commercial Real Estate is Already Here, Says Davidowitz

A coming collapse in commercial real estate has been looming for the last couple years, but Davidowitz thinks it has already begun. “I think there has [already] been a partial collapse in the commercial real estate business,” he says pointing to the rising number of community bank failures. “I think retail real estate developers better start rethinking the use of their space.”

There are always exceptions to the rule, but his resounding advice is to stick to commodities and stay away from the retail space, at least for now.

Video


Source: finance.yahoo.com

Internet ‘Kill Switch’ Legislation Back in Play

A topic of debate for some time.

Headline: Internet ‘Kill Switch’ Legislation Back in Play

Legislation granting the president internet-killing powers is to be re-introduced soon to a Senate committee, the proposal’s chief sponsor told Wired.com on Friday.

The resurgence of the so-called “kill switch” legislation came the same day Egyptians faced an internet blackout designed to counter massive demonstrations in that country.

The bill, which has bipartisan support, is being floated by Sen. Susan Collins, the Republican ranking member on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. The proposed legislation, which Collins said would not give the president the same power Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak is exercising to quell dissent, sailed through the Homeland Security Committee in December but expired with the new Congress weeks later.

Source: wired.com

Occam's Razor And The Gold Price

Technical Damage Requires Technical Repair and then it is off to the races again, Jim (see below)

As long as the COMEX remains the dominant price marker for precious metals, paper ‘fuel’ within the leverage markets will mark the end of the liquidation process (operation). The repairing process will start when the ‘fuel’ has been statistically exhausted. That is, the composition within open interest of future and options reflects a bullish concentration by the strong hands.

Gold London P.M Fixed And Precious Metals Diffusion Index (DI)

Occam's Razor & The Gold Price, by Jim Sinclair

"One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything"

Occam's razor is a logical principle attributed to the mediaeval philosopher William of Occam (or Ockham). The principle states that one should not make more assumptions than the minimum needed. This principle is often called the principle of parsimony. It underlies all scientific modelling and theory building. It admonishes us to choose from a set of otherwise equivalent models of a given phenomenon the simplest one. In any given model, Occam's razor helps us to "shave off" those concepts, variables or constructs that are not really needed to explain the phenomenon. By doing that, developing the model will become much easier, and there is less chance of introducing inconsistencies, ambiguities and redundancies.

Using William of Ockham's method for analysis of the gold price reaction, the following has occurred.

1. $1400 was an embarrassment to the thesis of "Inflation under control."
2. Gold Bank hard price blocking drew a top formation but one that will NOT put a long term top on gold.
3. A crazy Hedge fund kid got caught in an underfunded spread.
4. The crazy kid got it backwards either on the spread it self or by using is as a trading position.
5. The liquidation of the spread put more longs into the market than shorts covered.
6. The formation created by the $1400 block, broke down as product of the Spread Traders failures.
7. Algos tripped off the selling and now are trading gold from the bear side. Algos have no intellect, only mathematic soul-less driven machines.


Therefore Occam's Razor applied to #1 through #7 summates that the entire gold situation can be addressed as "Technical Damage Requires Technical Repair and then it is off to the races again"

Jim

Source: jsmineset.com

In the News - North Africa/Middle East

The oil market (price) is grappling with probabilities and consequences right now.

Headline: Clinton convenes mass meeting of US ambassadors

WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is convening an unprecedented mass meeting of U.S. ambassadors.

The top envoys from nearly all of America's 260 embassies, consulates and other posts in more than 180 countries will be gathering at the State Department beginning on Monday. Officials say it's the first such global conference.

Source: google.com

Headline: Albania braces for fresh protests

THE mood of revolt has spread beyond the Arab world to the Balkans.

The Albanian opposition gearing up for another anti-government protest today and the police warning of a high risk of violence.

The opposition Socialist Party said the rally was aimed at honouring the three victims of violent clashes in last week's anti-government demonstration. Protesters have been calling on the government to resign, claiming corruption and electoral fraud.

"Everything will be normal, not provoking anyone and not being provoked by anyone."

Source: theaustralian.com.au

Headline: After Riots, Algeria Considers a Reshuffle

Algeria's President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is considering high-level cabinet changes in hope of showing a reformist bent after the country was shaken by riots, people familiar with the matter said.

There is no clear timing for the changes, but one scenario under consideration would include the promotion of Energy Minister Youcef Yousfi to be the new prime minister, replacing current Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, they said. Such a move could be part of a broader reshuffle aimed at replacing officials with ties to political parties with technical experts whose reputations remain intact after the protests.

Mr. Yousfi, who became energy minister last year after a corruption probe shook Algeria's oil industry, has had a long career in the hydrocarbons sector as well as in diplomacy.

Mr. Ouyahia is the secretary general of the National Rally for Democracy, a member of the ruling coalition.

"I want to assure you it will be peaceful and quiet, there will be flowers and candles," Socialist leader Edi Rama said yesterday.

Source: online.wsj.com

Headline: Jordanians protest government policies

Thousands of Jordanians have marched against the government's political and economic policies, demanding the prime minister's resignation.

The demonstrations, which were held following the Friday prayers in the capital Amman and other major cities, were organized by the country's main political opposition group, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood. It was the third consecutive Friday of protests in Jordan.

Source: presstv.ir

From JB Slear
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