Let me get right to the point. Gold’s going to $5,000 an ounce.
For many of you this long term gold chart is nothing new. $5,000, while aggresive, could prove to be conservative.
Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) and the Equilibrium Price (FDHBFIN/OZ:
Source: dailymarkets.com
A lot of the newsletter writers are calling for a top and a correction in the PMs.
I try not to follow the opinions of others.
Over the years, holding the PMs has been great, but very often, for long periods of time, frustrating.
Precious metals stocks as a group have underperformed gold at times. Many of the well-known gold indices have been and continue to be populated by some boat anchors. As time passes many of those name have been and well be removed. Check out the updated composition of the HUI and GDX. There are new names. In time, 1930's history will repeat.
S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* to Gold Ratio:
* S&P Gold from 1945, Barron's Gold Stock Index from 1939-1945, 1922-1939 Homestake Mining:
“Personnel changes at the Ministry of Finance do not fundamentally change the positive supply/demand dynamics of the yen,” Adam Cole, London-based global head of currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients, referring to the recent resignation of Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii. Japanese politics have diverted attention from events that would strengthen the yen, he said.
Misdirection, or fading the spin, is a common trading tactic. A reversal in Yen money flows revealed a change weeks ago. A rising Yen despite chatter suggests that the spin has been faded once again.
Yen and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
Yen and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
Source: bloomberg.com
The Ohio Valley Gold & Silver Refinery is making its rounds through Missouri this month, letting cash-strapped citizens exchange goods for a check.
“Obviously, the dollar has decreased in value, so the precious metal market has increased,” he said. “Right now, gold has value. Sell while it’s high.”
Get rid of that useless broken gold and silver for valuable U.S. dollars.
Osmosis is diffusion water through a semi-permeable membrane from an area of high to an area of low concentration without the input of energy. At first, I thought the study of science and money were separate disciplines. Over time, I learned that the line of distinction was more diffuse than coherent. Knowledge, like osmosis, always separates the money from weak to strong hands without the input of energy.
Source: columbiatribune.com
I enjoy your work. This imminent/inevitable breakdown of the long bond is one of the most important items in the market today. It gets little media coverage (what else is new?)!
Also, in the past (on Jsmineset) you have alluded to quantitative easing being good for stocks in general, and small cap stocks in particular. Am I understanding you correctly? If I am understanding you correctly, than why?
JGB
Weimar Republic model serves as a classic example of rising equities prices in the face of deteriorating economic conditions due to extreme currency devaluation. While the U.S. dollar's decline has been orderly, it has provided a similar boost to equities since 2001. F-TV describes the equity performance as a series of cyclical bull and bear market since 2000. These are nothing more than movements within a depressionary trading box.
S&P 500:
The devaluation boost, however, is little more than a currency illusion. This illusion is revealed by in shades of 1932 commentary. Gold-adjusted, or devaluation normalized, stock performance reveals the true trend.
Small cap stocks have follow a similar but clearly unique trend.
Small cap stocks total return index to gold ratio:
Large cap stocks total return index to small cap stocks total return index:
The question is why? Does quantitative easing favor small cap stocks? Does it matter?
Questions to ponder for the comment board.
Undeterred by the rising anger on Main Street and the populist backlash in Washington D.C., Wall Street firms are poised to pay record bonuses for 2009.
You expected otherwise?
2009 "was just a great year" for Wall Street, Craig says. "But where the gap is...what they do and what they did caused a systemic risk to our system. We have to balance those two issues because there is a public interest in terms of what they did; the taxpayers had to clean it up. "
2009, was another great year, made possible by
1. FASB,
2. Reward without risk (which leads to 3)
3. Taxpayer money and infinite QE
4. Just enough complexity to keep the public confused.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
