Battle Over Perception

What proportion of rising retail sales is driven by inflation? The unexpected strength often cited by headlines as a recession buster quickly disappears when US dollar (nominal) retail sales are priced in stable currency such as gold. Despite the endless hype, gold adjusted, or real retail sales remain in a sharp downtrend that began in 2005.

Gold-Adjusted Retail Sales (RSGLDR) and YOY Change:


Even CPI adjusted retail sales, badly altered by growth dampening techniques over the past thirty years, have reached momentum zone which implies caution.

Real or CPI-Adjusted Retail Sales (RRS) and YOY Change:


Headline: Retail sales rise for sixth month in December

Retail sales rose for a sixth consecutive month in December, with big gains in sales of autos and furniture. The increases lifted sales for the year by the largest amount in more than a decade.

Sales rose 0.6 percent last month to $381 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The gain boosted retail sales 13.5 percent above the recession low hit in December 2008.

Source: finance.yahoo.com