The U.S. trade deficit jumped to the highest level in 10 months as an improving U.S. economy pushed up demand for imports. However, exports rose as well, boosted by a weaker dollar, supporting the view that American manufacturers will be helped by a rebounding global economy.
A country will structural deficits will always see a decline in the import to export ratio during an economic contraction. A swing low appears to have formed in 2009. This suggests the economic contraction is no longer accelerating. What this does not suggest, however, is that the depression or Great recession is over. Depressions are often characterized by an economy that bounces along the bottom for years. The yellow box shadow illustrates how the economy stagnated from 1991-1997. I expect the economy to continue bouncing along the bottom until at least 2015.
Imports to Exports Ratio (Census Basis):
Source: finance.yahoo.com
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