Retail Money Is Always The Mark

As if playing the game was simply this easy. A concentrated short position in oil has existed since February 2011. Expect the ‘concentrated short position’ to be reduced as the backsides of retail money have been chapped into weakness.

Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI)


Retail money is almost always bullish at or near the highs. This is why retail money is often described as the mark in the game. Their recent bullishness prior the predicted decline is highlighted by the green circle and arrow below.

CrudeOil (WTI) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest


Headline: Goldman sees new oil rally after predicting drop

Goldman Sachs, which in April predicted this week's major correction in oil prices, said on Friday that oil could surpass its recent highs by 2012 as global oil supplies continue to tighten.

The Wall Street bank, seen as one of the most influential in commodities business, said it did not rule out a further limited short-term fall in oil prices if macro-economic data, which it said had sparked this week's crash, continued to disappoint.

News of Goldman's mid-term outlook on Friday prompted a $1 a barrel jump in oil prices, helping oil to pare some of its earlier heavy losses.

Source: finance.yahoo.com