Swimming Against the Secular Current

Few traders/investors have the skills necessary to ‘time’ short-term reactions within secular trends. Even the 'best of the best' often struggle securing consistent profit scalping the dominant trend. It’s also important to note that anticipating the movement of capital goes well beyond observation of price formations defined by technical analysis (TA). The current up cycle will be decided by TIME, not technical price formations defined by TA.

Yet, despite these observations, there's never a shortage of traders/investors willing to ‘swim’ against the secular current. A word of caution, the current is strong. Its strength will wear down the stamina of all swimmers, regardless of their skill level.

Commodity Research Bureau Commodity Index (CRB):


A demand driven commodity market? Try monetary driven.

Commodity Research Bureau Commodity Index (CRB) to Gold Ratio:


Headline: A Crack in the Commodities Story

Prices of goods ranging from copper to cotton are beginning to break down following strong runs.

There are significant cracks in the commodities story, even as oil, gold and silver generally continue to perform well.

In recent weeks, prices for several commodities from soybeans to sugar have stalled. Cotton scored a massive bearish technical reversal last week. And in the stock market, fertilizer and copper stocks have been acting poorly

Source: finance.yahoo.com