Friday, June 11, 2010

Weimar Model Continues to Unfold

Dow Jones World Index 1995-2004:


An quick Internet search of May 2004 stock market crash or variation reveals the many calls for lower stock prices at the time.

Dow Jones World Index 2001-2010:


The similarities both in time and sentiment between 2010 and 2004 are obvious.

The resolution of today's uncertainly will follow Weimar model of devaluation like 1932, 2002, and 2009 until confidence deteriorates to the point of panic. Capital flows seeking safety from devaluation will push up gold, stocks, and eventually interest rates. The fact that gold will continue to outperform all assets reflects true nature of this economic recovery. The illusion of the nominal (u.s. dollar) recovery is illustrated below.

U.S. Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI); S&P 500 to Gold Ratio:

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